Transportation Costs and Sprawl

As many posts on this blog will highlight, Memphis has sprawled out a lot over the past fifty years. If you didn't believe us, here's a quick graphic comparison of where people lived then and now.Will the trend ever reverse? If transportation costs were the only factor, then the answer would be a definitive yes.

Gas prices are at levels not seen for a prolonged period of time since about fifty years ago, when sprawl began to rapidly proliferate.

The maps below illustrates the stark contrast in gasoline expenses in 2000 vs. 2008. The dark red that is dominant in the 2008 map indicates expenses that are at least double those of the dominant color in the 2000 map. Gas prices are back down a bit since 2008, but are not likely to ever see the prices enjoyed in the late 80's and 90's again.

Transportation is of course not the only factor that people face when making decisions to live in the suburbs. There's crime, education, housing costs, and a number of other factors. Regardless of those factors, if the cost of using a car stays high, the market will have to adjust somehow.

People can not sustain spending such a large percentage of income on housing and transportation. Housing plus transportation costs are 48% or more of the median income in all of the deep blue areas below, nearly everywhere east of the 240 loop.

As the housing market picks back up and more credit becomes available, I would be curious to see where houses are selling and if there is any sign of reversal in sprawl. My intuition is that it will be less prolific, but not gone. Memphis has too many social problems to deal with before housing and transportation costs can outweigh the perceived costs related to crime and the poorly performing educational system.